Market Commentary September 8, 2026

September 8, 2026

The Markets

The bond market isn’t happy.

The United States Treasury market is the biggest and most liquid government bond market in the world. Throughout 2026, rates on U.S. Treasuries have increased. The benchmark 10-year Treasury started the year at 4.2 percent and ended last week at 4.8 percent. The 2-year Treasury note rose more sharply, from 3.6 percent in January to 4.5 percent last week.

Rates move higher for a variety of reasons. Alex Rosenberg, Karishma Vanjani, and Martin Baccardax of Barron’s reported on the primary drivers for 2026, which include:

Sticky inflation. When prices rise, lenders demand higher yields to protect the value of the money they’ll be repaid in the future. In addition, the Federal Reserve has signaled it will keep interest rates high until inflation returns to its 2 percent target.
Rising government debt. The U.S. government finances its debts by issuing Treasuries. Higher debt means more Treasuries are sold. The growing supply of Treasuries puts upward pressure on rates.
Growing competition from corporate bonds. U.S. companies have been issuing a lot of high-quality bonds to support new projects. The flood of new bonds also pushes rates higher.

The U.S. is not alone. Rates on government bonds have been rising in countries around the world.

Higher Treasury rates affect investors and consumers

Rising rates are good news and bad news. The bad news for bondholders is the inverse relationship between interest rates and prices. As rates rise, bond prices fall. The good news is that income-oriented investors can purchase bonds with rates that are higher than they’ve been in a long time.

The stinger for consumers is that the 10-year Treasury is the benchmark rate for mortgage rates. In addition, Treasuries influence rates on auto loans and credit cards. When rates rise, borrowing typically becomes more expensive. On the plus side, higher rates usually help bring inflation lower.

Last week, major U.S. stock indexes delivered mixed performance. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite were flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. Yields on most intermediate and longer maturities of U.S. Treasuries ticked higher.

Data as of 9/4/26	1-Week	YTD	1-Year	3-Year	5-Year	10-Year
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index	0.1%	12.8%	18.7%	19.7%	11.3%	13.4%
Vanguard Total Intl Index (Foreign Stocks)	0.9	17.5	27.2	20.0	8.9	9.5
Total Bond Market (U.S. Dollar Bonds)	-0.1	-0.2	0.8	4.3	-0.3	1.4
S&P GSCI Gold Index	-1.2	3.1	24.1	31.9	20.0	12.7
Bloomberg Commodity Index	1.9	30.3	39.0	10.2	8.3	5.5

S&P 500, Vanguard Total International Stock Index, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index, Gold, and Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized. Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; morningstar.com; djindexes.com; London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.

WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE ECONOMIC MENAGERIE? If you’ve ever listened to the financial news, you know that pundits frequently rely on animal metaphors to communicate their points. Bull and bear markets are a case in point. Bulls charge forward and thrust their horns up on the attack, while bears employ downward paw strikes. Bull markets trend higher, while bear markets trend lower. Both animals are unpredictable and strong; volatile like financial markets can be. See what you know about the animal metaphors Wall Street relies on by taking this brief quiz.

Economist John Maynard Keynes believed that people’s instincts and emotions influence their behavior and financial choices. He argued that we spend or invest based on our outlook for the future, and that emotional urges drive economic booms and busts. What term did he use to describe this idea?
1. Herd mentality
2. Market mood swings
3. Animal spirits
4. Bullish instincts

A central banker who favors moving interest rates higher to fight inflation or cool the economy is known as a hawk. What is the term used to describe someone who favors moving interest rates lower to spur economic growth?
1. A meercat
2. A dove
3. A chickadee
4. A mouse

There are two theories about investors and dividends. One holds that stock investors are indifferent to whether gains come from stock dividends or gains. The other says that investors prefer dividend-paying stocks because dividends are generally stable and make returns more predictable. What is the latter theory called?
1. The Bird-In-Hand Theory
2. The Nest Egg Theory
3. The Cash Cow Theory
4. The Fishbone Theory

In business, a company becomes a “unicorn” when it reaches a certain milestone. What is that milestone?
1. A valuation of $1 billion or more
2. Annual profits of $100 million or more
3. Annual sales of $100 million or more
4. A stock price of $5,000

If you have questions about bulls, bears, or other financial jargon, let us know. We’re happy to translate.

WEEKLY FOCUS – THINK ABOUT IT

“An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”

― Neils Bohr, Physicist

Answers: 1) c; 2) b; 3) a; 4) a

Best regards,

Waterford Advisors

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* These views are those of Carson Coaching, not the presenting Representative, the Representative’s Broker/Dealer, or Registered Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice.

* This newsletter was prepared by Carson Coaching. Carson Coaching is not affiliated with the named firm or broker/dealer.

* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate.

* Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features.

* The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index.

* All indexes referenced are unmanaged. The volatility of indexes could be materially different from that of a client’s portfolio. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. You cannot invest directly in an index.

* Gold represents the 3:00 p.m. (London time) gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association and is expressed in U.S. Dollars per fine troy ounce. The source for gold data is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GOLDPMGBD228NLBM.

* The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.

* The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones.

* The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system.

* International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.

* The risk of loss in trading commodities and futures can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The high degree of leverage is often obtainable in commodity trading and can work against you as well as for you. The use of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance.

* Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

* Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

* The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee it is accurate or complete.

* There is no guarantee a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

* Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Sources:

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/31/bonds-yields-wigglesworth-book

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-market-strategy-rising-yields-portfolio-c278240d or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/09-08-26-Barrons-Death-of-a-Safe-Haven%203.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bond.asp

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/what-drives-consumer-interest-rates

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/inflation-interest-rate-relationship.asp

https://www.barrons.com/market-data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV or go to https://resources.carsongroup.com/hubfs/WMC-Source/2026/09-08-26-Barrons-DJIA-S&P-Nasdaq%20-%207.pdf

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/bull-bear-market-names/

https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/03/how-animal-spirits-affect-the-economy-karthik-sastry