Author: Christina Michalczak

The Markets 2023 was a big year for U.S. stocks. The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 came to a close, many on Wall Street predicted further pain in the… Read more »

The Markets If all you wanted for Christmas was two percent inflation, you’re in luck! Barring unforeseen events, it appears the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the cusp of accomplishing a feat many thought impossible – reducing inflation without causing a recession. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised the federal… Read more »

The Markets Have rates peaked? Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said: “As we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been made toward our… Read more »

December 11, 2023 The Markets Still exceeding expectations. Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg explained: “Softening inflation and employment data in the past… Read more »

The Markets We’re cycling along. It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages: Contraction occurs when economic growth slows as an economy produces fewer goods and services. Economic contractions often include recessions. As productivity contracts, it can negatively affect… Read more »

The Markets In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers. At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over the next six months, and about 24 percent were bullish.… Read more »

The Markets Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.) Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and bond markets rallied, reported Koh Gui… Read more »

The Markets Earnings grew in the third quarter. Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings – also known as bottom-line profits – is one of the economic indicators that investors watch closely. When companies consistently grow earnings, investors… Read more »

The Markets Will there be a year-end rally? Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no. For example, at Bank of America, “Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett broke from his usual bearish view to say technicals… Read more »

The Markets The Mark Twain Effect? Historically, economic theory was based on the idea that financial decisions were grounded in rational thought. In recent years, behavioral economists have recognized that people don’t always behave rationally. In fact, research has found that investors like shortcuts that help simplify decision-making. While rules of thumb can be helpful,… Read more »